Publications

1. Song J, Okano JT, Ponce J, Busang L, Seipone K, Valdano E, Blower S. The role of migration networks in the development of Botswana's generalized HIV epidemic.. eLife, 2023.
2. Okano JT, Low A, Ndagije F, Dullie L, Blower S. How to reach the last milestone for HIV elimination in Africa: a data-based mapping approach.. The Lancet. Global health, 2023.
3. Blower S, Okano JT, Kahn JS. Modeling UNAIDS treatment targets for China.. AIDS (London, England), 2023.
4. Song J, Okano JT, Ponce J, Busang L, Seipone K, Valdano E, Blower S. Population mobility and the development of Botswana's generalized HIV epidemic: a network analysis.. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2023.
5. Valdano E, Okano JT, Colizza V, Mitonga HK, Blower S. Use of mobile phone data in HIV epidemic control.. The lancet. HIV, 2022.
6. Okano JT, Ponce J, Krönke M, Blower S. Lack of ownership of mobile phones could hinder the rollout of mHealth interventions in Africa.. eLife, 2022.
7. Okano JT, Valdano E, Mitonga HK, Blower S. Predicting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa: the case of Namibia.. Journal of travel medicine, 2022.
8. Okano JT, Busang L, Seipone K, Valdano E, Blower S. The potential impact of country-level migration networks on HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Botswana.. The lancet. HIV, 2021.
9. Valdano E, Okano JT, Colizza V, Mitonga HK, Blower S. Using mobile phone data to reveal risk flow networks underlying the HIV epidemic in Namibia.. Nature communications, 2021.
10. Palk L, Okano JT, Dullie L, Blower S. Travel time to health-care facilities, mode of transportation, and HIV elimination in Malawi: a geospatial modelling analysis.. The Lancet. Global health, 2020.
11. Okano JT, Blower S. Preventing major outbreaks of COVID-19 in jails.. Lancet (London, England), 2020.
12. Okano JT, Sharp K, Valdano E, Palk L, Blower S. HIV transmission and source-sink dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa.. The lancet. HIV, 2020.
13. Valdano E, Blower S. Universal Testing and Treatment for HIV Infection in Botswana.. The New England journal of medicine, 2019.
14. Blower S, Okano JT. Precision public health and HIV in Africa.. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2019.
15. Okano JT, Blower S. New conceptual framework for tuberculosis transmission.. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2019.
16. Palk L, Gerstoft J, Obel N, Blower S. A modeling study of the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men: travel, pre-exposure prophylaxis and elimination.. Scientific reports, 2018.
17. Palk L, Blower S. Geographic variation in sexual behavior can explain geospatial heterogeneity in the severity of the HIV epidemic in Malawi.. BMC medicine, 2018.
18. Okano JT, Coburn BJ, Blower S. Response to comment on "Using geospatial mapping to design HIV elimination strategies for sub-Saharan Africa".. Science translational medicine, 2017.
19. Blower S, Palk L. Methodological concerns regarding a PrEP model.. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2017.
20. Coburn BJ, Okano JT, Blower S. Using geospatial mapping to design HIV elimination strategies for sub-Saharan Africa.. Science translational medicine, 2017.
21. Okano JT, Blower S. Sex-specific maps of HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa.. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2016.
22. Okano JT, Gerstoft J, Obel N, Blower S. HIV elimination and population viral load.. The lancet. HIV, 2016.
23. Okano JT, Robbins D, Palk L, Gerstoft J, Obel N, Blower S. Testing the hypothesis that treatment can eliminate HIV: a nationwide, population-based study of the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men.. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2016.
24. Palk L, Blower S. Mapping divided households and residency changes: the effect of couple separation on sexual behavior and risk of HIV infection.. Scientific reports, 2015.
25. Supervie V, Barrett M, Kahn JS, Musuka G, Moeti TL, Busang L, Blower S. Corrigendum: Modeling dynamic interactions between pre-exposure prophylaxis interventions &treatment programs: predicting HIV transmission &resistance.. Scientific reports, 2015.
26. Palk L, Blower S. Brief report: Mobility and circular migration in Lesotho: implications for transmission, treatment, and control of a severe HIV epidemic.. Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999), 2015.
27. Blower S, Palk L. Combination HIV prevention and the battle of the sexes.. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2015.
28. Gerberry DJ, Wagner BG, Garcia-Lerma JG, Heneine W, Blower S. Using geospatial modelling to optimize the rollout of antiretroviral-based pre-exposure HIV interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa.. Nature communications, 2014.
29. Blower S, Coburn BJ. Maximising the effect of combination HIV prevention in Kenya.. Lancet (London, England), 2014.
30. Okano JT, Blower S. Beware of using invalid transmission models to guide HIV health policy.. The Lancet. Global health, 2014.
31. Coburn BJ, Blower S. Predicting the potential for within-flight transmission and global dissemination of MERS.. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2014.
32. Coburn BJ, Blower S. Mapping HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa with use of GPS data.. The Lancet. Global health, 2013.
33. Coburn BJ, Okano JT, Blower S. Current drivers and geographic patterns of HIV in Lesotho: implications for treatment and prevention in Sub-Saharan Africa.. BMC medicine, 2013.
34. Okano JT, Blower S. HIV treatment, preexposure prophylaxis, and drug resistance: reconciling conflicting predictions from mathematical models.. The Journal of infectious diseases, 2013.
35. Wagner BG, Coburn BJ, Blower S. Increasing survival time decreases the cost-effectiveness of using "test & treat'' to eliminate HIV epidemics.. Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE, 2013.
36. Coburn BJ, Blower S. A feasibility analysis of implementing interventions for discordant couples in 14 African countries: implications for epidemic control.. AIDS (London, England), 2012.
37. Wagner BG, Blower S. Universal access to HIV treatment versus universal 'test and treat': transmission, drug resistance & treatment costs.. PloS one, 2012.
38. Supervie V, Blower S. Predicting effect of pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV epidemics.. Lancet (London, England), 2012.
39. Go MH, Blower S. What impact will reducing concurrency have on decreasing the incidence of HIV in heterosexual populations?. Sexually transmitted diseases, 2012.
40. Wagner BG, Garcia-Lerma JG, Blower S. Factors limiting the transmission of HIV mutations conferring drug resistance: fitness costs and genetic bottlenecks.. Scientific reports, 2012.
41. Supervie V, Barrett M, Kahn JS, Musuka G, Moeti TL, Busang L, Busang L, Blower S. Modeling dynamic interactions between pre-exposure prophylaxis interventions & treatment programs: predicting HIV transmission & resistance.. Scientific reports, 2011.
42. El-Sadr WM, Coburn BJ, Blower S. Modeling the impact on the HIV epidemic of treating discordant couples with antiretrovirals to prevent transmission.. AIDS (London, England), 2011.
43. Yasmin S, Gerberry DJ, Blower S. Human papillomavirus vaccination programs and human immunodeficiency virus epidemics.. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2011.
44. Blower S, Go MH. The importance of including dynamic social networks when modeling epidemics of airborne infections: does increasing complexity increase accuracy?. BMC medicine, 2011.
45. Gerberry DJ, Blower SM. Could we – should we – calculate a risk exposure score for an HIV-negative individual in a serodiscordant couple?. AIDS (London, England), 2011.
46. Coburn BJ, Gerberry DJ, Blower S. Quantification of the role of discordant couples in driving incidence of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2011.
47. Supervie V, Halima Y, Blower S. Assessing the impact of mass rape on the incidence of HIV in conflict-affected countries.. AIDS (London, England), 2010.
48. Wagner B, Blower S. Costs of eliminating HIV in South Africa have been underestimated.. Lancet (London, England), 2010.
49. Supervie V, García-Lerma JG, Heneine W, Blower S. HIV, transmitted drug resistance, and the paradox of preexposure prophylaxis.. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2010.
50. Gerberry DJ, Blower S. Predicting the level of vaccine-induced cross-immunity necessary to eliminate HIV epidemics composed of multiple subtypes.. AIDS (London, England), 2010.
51. Coburn BJ, Blower S. A major HIV risk factor for young men who have sex with men is sex with older partners.. Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999), 2010.
52. Vardavas R, Breban R, Blower S. A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics.. BMC research notes, 2010.
53. Wagner BG, Kahn JS, Blower S. Should we try to eliminate HIV epidemics by using a 'Test and Treat' strategy?. AIDS (London, England), 2010.
54. Smith RJ, Okano JT, Kahn JS, Bodine EN, Blower S. Evolutionary dynamics of complex networks of HIV drug-resistant strains: the case of San Francisco.. Science (New York, N.Y.), 2010.
55. Okano JT, Blower S. Are correctional facilities amplifying the epidemic of community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus?. Nature reviews. Microbiology, 2010.
56. Wagner BG, Coburn BJ, Blower S. Calculating the potential for within-flight transmission of influenza A (H1N1).. BMC medicine, 2009.
57. Breban R, Napravnik S, Kahn J, Blower S. Quantifying the treatment efficacy of reverse transcriptase inhibitors: new analyses of clinical data based on within-host modeling.. BMC public health, 2009.
58. Coburn BJ, Wagner BG, Blower S. Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics: insights into the future of swine flu (H1N1).. BMC medicine, 2009.
59. Breban R, Supervie V, Okano JT, Vardavas R, Blower S. Is there any evidence that syphilis epidemics cycle?. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2008.
60. Wilson DP, Coplan PM, Wainberg MA, Blower SM. The paradoxical effects of using antiretroviral-based microbicides to control HIV epidemics.. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2008.
61. Fenton KA, Breban R, Vardavas R, Okano JT, Martin T, Aral S, Blower S. Infectious syphilis in high-income settings in the 21st century.. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2008.
62. Schwartz EJ, Bodine EN, Blower S. Effectiveness and efficiency of imperfect therapeutic HSV-2 vaccines.. Human vaccines, 2007.
63. Breban R, Vardavas R, Blower S. Mean-field analysis of an inductive reasoning game: application to influenza vaccination.. Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics, 2007.
64. Kajita E, Okano JT, Bodine EN, Layne SP, Blower S. Modelling an outbreak of an emerging pathogen.. Nature reviews. Microbiology, 2007.
65. Blower S, Supervie V. Predicting the future of XDR tuberculosis.. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2007.
66. Wilson DP, Blower S. How far will we need to go to reach HIV-infected people in rural South Africa?. BMC medicine, 2007.
67. Crespi CM, Cumberland WG, Wald A, Corey L, Blower S. Longitudinal study of herpes simplex virus type 2 infection using viral dynamic modelling.. Sexually transmitted infections, 2007.
68. Vardavas R, Breban R, Blower S. Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?. PLoS computational biology, 2007.
69. Cohen MS, Gay C, Kashuba AD, Blower S, Paxton L. Narrative review: antiretroviral therapy to prevent the sexual transmission of HIV-1.. Annals of internal medicine, 2007.
70. Breban R, Vardavas R, Blower S. Theory versus data: how to calculate R0?. PloS one, 2007.
71. Vardavas R, Blower S. The emergence of HIV transmitted resistance in Botswana: "when will the WHO detection threshold be exceeded?".. PloS one, 2007.
72. Wilson DP, Kahn J, Blower SM. Predicting the epidemiological impact of antiretroviral allocation strategies in KwaZulu-Natal: the effect of the urban-rural divide.. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2006.
73. Breban R, McGowan I, Topaz C, Schwartz EJ, Anton P, Blower S. Modeling the potential impact of rectal microbicides to reduce hiv transmission in bathhouses.. Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE, 2006.
74. Breban R, Blower S. Role of parametric resonance in virological failure during HIV treatment interruption therapy.. Lancet (London, England), 2006.
75. Wilson DP, Blower SM. Rational choices for allocating antiretrovirals in Africa: treatment equity, epidemiological efficiency, and feasibility.. PLoS medicine, 2006.
76. Wilson DP, Bodine EN, Smith RJ, Blower SM. Response to Foss et al., 'Care should be taken when promoting microbicide use among sex workers who are able to use condoms consistently'.. AIDS (London, England), 2005.
77. Blower S. Modeling the potential public health impact of imperfect HIV vaccines.. The Journal of infectious diseases, 2005.
78. Breban R, Vardavas R, Blower S. Linking population-level models with growing networks: a class of epidemic models.. Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics, 2005.
79. Breban R, Blower S. The reinfection threshold does not exist.. Journal of theoretical biology, 2005.
80. Wilson DP, Blower SM. Allocating antiretrovirals in South Africa: using modeling to determine treatment equity.. PLoS medicine, 2005.
81. Blower SM, Bodine EN, Grovit-Ferbas K. Predicting the potential public health impact of disease-modifying HIV vaccines in South Africa: the problem of subtypes.. Current drug targets. Infectious disorders, 2005.
82. Schwartz EJ, Blower S. Predicting the potential individual- and population-level effects of imperfect herpes simplex virus type 2 vaccines.. The Journal of infectious diseases, 2005.
83. Smith RJ, Bodine EN, Wilson DP, Blower SM. Evaluating the potential impact of vaginal microbicides to reduce the risk of acquiring HIV in female sex workers.. AIDS (London, England), 2005.
84. Crespi CM, Cumberland WG, Blower S. A queueing model for chronic recurrent conditions under panel observation.. Biometrics, 2005.
85. Wilson DP, Blower SM. Designing equitable antiretroviral allocation strategies in resource-constrained countries.. PLoS medicine, 2005.
86. Blower S, Bodine E, Kahn J, McFarland W. The antiretroviral rollout and drug-resistant HIV in Africa: insights from empirical data and theoretical models.. AIDS (London, England), 2005.
87. Wilson DP, Blower SM. Microbicides: anti-HIV efficacy and ethics.. Science (New York, N.Y.), 2004.
88. Blower S, Ma L. Calculating the contribution of herpes simplex virus type 2 epidemics to increasing HIV incidence: treatment implications.. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2004.
89. Smith RJ, Blower SM. Could disease-modifying HIV vaccines cause population-level perversity?. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2004.
90. Blower S, Wald A, Gershengorn H, Wang F, Corey L. Targeting virological core groups: a new paradigm for controlling herpes simplex virus type 2 epidemics.. The Journal of infectious diseases, 2004.
91. Blower SM, Chou T. Modeling the emergence of the 'hot zones': tuberculosis and the amplification dynamics of drug resistance.. Nature medicine, 2004.
92. Blower S, Bernoulli D. An attempt at a new analysis of the mortality caused by smallpox and of the advantages of inoculation to prevent it. 1766.. Reviews in medical virology, 2004.
93. Ziv E, Daley CL, Blower S. Potential public health impact of new tuberculosis vaccines.. Emerging infectious diseases, 2004.
94. Blower S. Modelling the genital herpes epidemic.. Herpes : the journal of the IHMF, 2004.
95. Blower S, Ma L, Farmer P, Koenig S. Predicting the impact of antiretrovirals in resource-poor settings: preventing HIV infections whilst controlling drug resistance.. Current drug targets. Infectious disorders, 2003.
96. Blower S, Schwartz EJ, Mills J. Forecasting the future of HIV epidemics: the impact of antiretroviral therapies & imperfect vaccines.. AIDS reviews, 2003.
97. Gershengorn HB, Darby G, Blower SM. Predicting the emergence of drug-resistant HSV-2: new predictions.. BMC infectious diseases, 2003.
98. Blower SM, Aschenbach AN, Kahn JO. Predicting the transmission of drug-resistant HIV: comparing theory with data.. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2003.
99. Blower S, Volberding P. What can modeling tell us about the threat of antiviral drug resistance?. Current opinion in infectious diseases, 2002.
100. Blower SM, Roughgarden J. Parasites detect host spatial pattern and density: a field experimental analysis.. Oecologia, 1989.